What Is Going To Happen To The Housing Market

What Is Going To Happen To The Housing Market – Written by Eric J. Martin Arrow Written by Eric J. Martin Arrow Contributing Writer Eric J. Martin is a freelance writer/editor based in the Chicago area whose articles have appeared in AARP Magazine, Reader’s Digest, The Costco Connection , Motley Fool and others. publications. He often writes on topics related to real estate, business, technology, healthcare, insurance and entertainment. Eric J. Martin

Edited by Troy Segal Arrow Edited by Troy Segal Arrow Home Ownership Right Side Senior Editor Troy Segal is a senior home ownership editor who focuses on everything from preservation and conservation to building equity and enhancement of the value. Troy Segal

What Is Going To Happen To The Housing Market

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The new year is the perfect time to predict the real estate business for 2023. With the increase in mortgage rates, home sales – and home prices in some areas – hit the brakes, and uncertainty is growing throughout the market, many owners, potential sellers and potential buyers are feeling nervous.

And for good reason. Keep in mind, at the time of writing, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.63 percent. The inflation rate is an alarming 7.1 percent. Sales of pre-owned homes fell 7.7% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors, meaning existing homes are selling at the slowest pace seen in 10 years.

We reached out to several industry experts, each of whom offered interesting predictions and predictions about where mortgage rates, home prices, buyer competition, housing supply, sales activity and housing affordability will be in 2023. You wonder what the professionals think? Read on for their reviews and predictions.

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Interest rates almost doubled by 2022, and mortgage rates were no exception. But how about in 2023? Will the cost of home financing fall this year?

Some say no. “Continued inflation, higher interest rates across the board, potential recession and geopolitical pressures will push 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates higher in 2023, bringing both rates closer to short-term risks” , Dennis Shirshikov, a strategist at Awning. com and a professor of economics and finance at the City University of New York, predicts benchmark 30- and 15-year mortgage rates of 8.75 percent and 8.25 percent, respectively, by 2023.

Robert Johnson, professor of finance at Creighton University’s Hyder College of Business, shares some of these sentiments. “At the end of 2023, financial market participants expect the Fed to increase the Fed funds rate from 175 to 200 basis points from current levels. This will increase 30- and 15-year mortgage rates Translate in about 8.50 and 7.70 percent,” he says.

Rick Sharga, CEO of Market Intelligence for ATTOM Data Solutions, which analyzes real estate and real estate data, is optimistic. He sees rates rising to about 8 percent and 7.25 percent for 30- and 15-year loans beginning in 2023, “then gradually falling slightly over the course of the year to, respectively, hang at 6 .0 percent and 5.25 percent.. It depends entirely. on the Federal Reserve’s ability to bring inflation under control and ease its aggressive rate hikes.

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Meanwhile, Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research for the National Association of Realtors, predicts three different price scenarios in 2023.

“In scenario #1, inflation remains high, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates more frequently. This means mortgage rates will rise, possibly to around 8.5 percent. In scenario # 2, spending The consumer price index is more responsive to Fed rates and there is a gradual decrease in inflation, stabilizing mortgage rates at around 7 percent to 7.5 percent for 2023. If inflation stops and the economy faces recession, it can reduce prices by 5 percent,” he explains.

Each of Evangelou’s three scenarios for mortgage rates would have a major impact on home sales. In any case, sales will decrease – it’s just a question of how much.

“The higher prices in scenario #1 could cause home sales to drop by more than 10 percent over the next year,” he continued. “In scenario # 2, home sales will decrease by 7 percent to 8 percent. And in scenario # 3, housing activity may decrease by more than 15 percent.

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Our other experts agree: the slowdown in home sales that began in the second half of 2022 will continue into 2023. Sharga believes that sales numbers will continue to slow, probably in the range of 4.5 million, with new home sales around 600,000.

Lists can no longer move at lightning speed. “Days on market have been trending toward normal levels recently, and we could see them approach 30 days or more in 2023 as the market continues to cool,” he says.

Shershikov echoes these sentiments. “The average number of days on the market will increase by two to three times the current level,” he said.

Interestingly, due to the low inventory, “house prices will not fall in 2023”, predicts Evangelo. “I expect rates to be relatively flat, rising by only 1 percentage point.”

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Johnson, however, feels that higher interest rates will undoubtedly hurt home values ​​and prices. “A softer housing market will result in lower prices than current levels,” says Johnson.

“Many potential buyers are still waiting to enter the market. Assuming that house prices do, you will see some of those buyers emerge, especially all cash or low-value loan buyers who are less affected by the interest rate issues”. explains Scott Krinsky, a fellow resident. Banking Division of Romer DeBas, Manhattan Real Estate Law Firm.

According to Sharga, nationally, home values ​​are expected to decline almost as much as ever, perhaps between 5 percent and 10 percent.

“Some of the more expensive markets will likely see big drops. Limited inventory,

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